Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
